iPhone 5 和 “破窗謬論”

當JPMorgan Chase的經濟分析師Michael Feroli提出iPhone 5大賣可影響美國GDP，後引起很大的回響。

經濟學大師Paul Krugman，在紐約時報甚至於因此報導而提文“Broken Windows and the iPhones”。全文如下：

“There’s been some buzz about a report suggesting that the iPhone 5 could, all by itself, give a significant boost to the US economy. I can’t judge how plausible the sales estimates are; but it’s worth pointing out how the economic logic of this suggestion relates to the larger picture.

The key point is that the optimism about the iPhone’s effects has nothing (or at any rate not much) to do with the presumed quality of the phone, and the ways in which it might make us happier or more productive. Instead, the immediate gains would come from the way the new phone would get people to junk their old phones and replace them.

In other words, if you believe that the iPhone really might give the economy a big boost, you have — whether you realize it or not — bought into a version of the “broken windows” theory, in which destroying some capital can actually be a good thing under depression conditions.

Of course, it’s nice that the reason we’re junking old capital is to make room for something better, not just for the hell of it. But you know what would also be nice? Building useful stuff like infrastructure employing labor and cash that would otherwise sit idle.”

“Broken Windows Fallacy” 破窗謬論或是破窗效應，由法國的 Frédéric Bastiat 在1850年提出。意乃破壞可能帶來經濟效益 (若有重建)。

Paul Krugman提出：如果你認為iPhone真正可能會推動經濟，你可能沒意識到你正進入“破窗”謬論的漩渦中。在抑鬱的大環境下，摧毀了部分資產，實際上可能是一件好事。當然了，破壞舊的資產，如果能導致提出空間以容納更好的資產，是一件好事。把閑置無用的現金，去僱用勞工建設基礎設施，是好事一樁。此“iPhone 5大賣可影響美國GDP”的說法，和iPhone本身的好壞無關，也和新iPhone可否讓我們更快樂或是辦事更有效能無關。它最大的效應是：新iPhone讓我們有機會去丟掉舊手機，換新手機！

老人：不管“破窗謬論”對或不對，iPhone倒真的可Broken Windows ！

PS: 十八萬分感謝csc0503和hughman1986的糾正！你們太厲害了。謝謝謝謝！