2012年3月26日 星期一

何謂“後PC”世界、“後PC”時代?

有關後PC時代或世界的歷史,請見“後PC世界 (歷史):Post-PC era, Post-PC revolution, Post-PC world”。
後PC時代由Steve Jobs在iPad推出後於2010年提出。其後雖然大部分專家和媒體都相繼接受,但仍有少數的爭議,譬如偉大的微軟就指出一切都是PC(狹議PC)。所以問題在“PC”個人電腦的定義。

老人也揍個熱鬧,提出“後PC”時代的概念和定義。(在此PC指個人電腦,含微軟視窗或麥金塔等個人電腦)

1). 傳統慨念的PC為:
   硬體:
    1. 有一主機含快速中央處理器、儲存內外設備、銀幕、輸入裝置等。筆記型個人電腦可把上述硬體合一,但基本慨念不變,仍是傳統電腦。大部分除筆記型外不易攜帶,不省電可用時間短、缺行動性Mobile。
    2. 需大量的RAM、大容量內外儲存設備
    3. 輸入裝置之人機介面,主要靠獨立鍵盤、滑鼠。有各種各樣的檔案輸出裝置,如USB、光碟機、外接硬碟等。
   軟體:
    1. 作業系統大。學習時間長、複雜性大
    2. 應用軟體較大,一般傳統稱Software
    3. 有檔案管理、檔案個別獨立存在
    4. 網路以有線為主,無線為副
    5. 上網依網頁瀏覽軟體,如Safari等
    6. 儲存設備主要在裝置內,容量大。在公司主要在大型伺服器中。
2). PC永不死。但傳統慨念的個人電腦卻漸消,雖不死。
3). PC雖不死,但漸漸已不再是個人數位中心。而當PC不再是個人數位中心時,暗示“後PC”時代已來臨
4). 取代PC的,便是後PC電算裝置 (Post-PC computing device)。
5). 後PC電算裝置的特點:
   硬體:
    1. Mobile。“行動”特性,隨時隨地可攜帶使用是重點。所以一定有輕、小、省電,三大特性才可能具行動性。
    2. 一體成型
    3. 輸入裝置之人機介面靠觸控裝置。可稱行動觸控裝置(mobile touch device),絕大部份可指觸控(以合乎輕便、一體之慨念)。或可音控,或可手勢控制。輸出主要靠網路、雲端,非以輸出裝置為主。
   軟體:
    1. 作業系統小。學習時間短、簡單直覺
    2. 應用軟體小,一般稱App
    3. 無檔案總管理、檔案存於App中
    4. 網路全部無線(Wifi或3G等)為主要
    5. 上網主要依個別App,而網頁瀏覽專用App為副
    6. 儲存設備容量小,雲端取代裝置內的儲存設備。在個人稱為個人雲端Personal Cloud,在家庭稱家中雲端Family Cloud。
6). 後PC行動觸控電算裝置(Post-PC Mobile Touch Computing Device)主要角色是iPad似的平板,和智慧型手機。和Steve Jobs慨念不同的是,智慧型手機如iPhone,因為功能漸強大,在後PC時代,地位不下於平板。   
7). 在後PC時代,所謂個人數位中心將由智慧型手機、平板、輕便筆記型電腦(Macbook Air、Ultrabook)為主軸,是互補,但可獨立存在,無絕對中心裝置。有時三種裝置之功能有交叉的裝置,如Note-Phone。

總總跡象顯示後PC時代已來臨,現在是後PC世界,如平板出貨量超越PC、行動觸控裝置上網流量與日升高、老人幼兒會使用平板、App數量和營收超越傳統電腦軟體、等。

人類的科技因為“永遠”不可能解決“能”和
“熱”的問題(牽涉到質能不變原理),所以可見的未來不要幻想快、萬能,但又小、又不吃電、又不發熱的裝置! 就好像目前知道石油不好,卻無法取得可用安全代替品一樣。電力使用在小的裝置內,就是會發熱! 目前的桌上型電腦、筆記型電腦、甚或現在的新iPad都一樣面對“熱”的問題和“電力”問題。所以在後PC時代,“It just work”恰恰好可用,是重點!規格人人會加強,但裝置適用否?這也就是“卡車理論”的概念!這也是規格戰爭已死的道理 (見“規格戰爭的死亡 (The Death of The Spec)The Death of The Spec”)。
後PC電算裝置比的是可用、適用、好用、易用、耐用!和人人可用!

6 則留言:

  1. I am too young to understand how society think about tech evolution.

    I have live through the age where my dad use a big cellular phone in his car with a big briefcase of battery.

    That time, phone can only make analog call, last for 30 min and need 10 hour charge or 3 hour on fast charger.

    Fast forward now, I have a nokia 1110, which can call/sms and play game for countless hour, very small size and so cheap. And I have my iPhone, which is more powerful than the computer on Apollo space project.

    I really can't see a future where technology barrier will be an issue for tech evolution.

    That is the problem that our generation need to tackle and deal with it :)

    回覆刪除
  2. 但是我玩高端遊戲!還是需要PC啊!這很無奈!

    回覆刪除
  3. 所以PC永不死,但Mac可能漸取代微軟PC!!!

    回覆刪除
  4. Jin:
    The issue is already hear, in the desktop PC。Intel just can not get the CPU more quickly or effectively as in the past years, the heat problem is the main killer of technique for PC。This is also why "intel outside" is successful for mobile device. Intel also found the issue but can not find way out yet....

    回覆刪除
  5. Different Apple:

    Agree. However, there is no a correct way for technology to evolve. Do you know Intel Atom have been using PowerVR technology(yes, the PowerVR in Apple A4) all the while?
    We can't really sure the future is in ARM hand for now.

    Because, I always think company like IBM and Microsoft and Apple will be the top 3 power in the technology still in the future, (Facebook might join but I don't think Google will be there in 10 year time).

    The reason is very simple. Technology industry is different.
    Unlike Car industry, 10 average worker can outdo 1 hardworking worker. In tech field, 1 great programmer can beat 100 lousy programmer.

    Guess where will those talent go to?

    IBM, have create so many patent in the world and continue to amaze people with cutting edge technology.

    Microsoft, have been so successful in catching up.(window/office/Xbox) They also have so many great technology research team that create so many awesome stuff, the executive don't know how to sell it !!

    Apple, with a small talented A-Team member (mobile Safari team is just 3 people while I visit there), create amazing stuff.

    And back to Intel, those server that make those web service possible on iPhone wasn't run on ARM but mostly Intel. The consumer product is just a tips of the iceberg and the end to end solution is much greater than it seem on the newspaper.

    I don't think PC is dying. It evolving. The future is in the cloud. PC is just one of the terminal. Just like TV doesn't kill Radio, and PC doesn't kill TV. We just consume it differently.

    The only thing that doesn't change is, we need information. And Technology will close that gap. The PC/Mobile/TV is just a medium.

    Post-PC era? We already in it. We now access information without cord anywhere in the world. My PC can't let me check my friend Facebook status when I'm in toilet.
    I call this, the future :)

    回覆刪除
  6. 「慨」念 --> 「概」念

    數字排序應為:
    1.
    1)
    2)
    3)
    2.
    1)
    2)
    3)
    依此類推

    回覆刪除